I will be elated if Trump succeeds in splitting the GQP. Let’s be clear, though, that
- this is really an outlier possibility,
- there is very little that readers of Daily Kos, or any other Democrats can do to affect this, and
- changing our strategy to include this changed condition will be easy.
So, we should prepare our strategy for 2022 and 2024 for the situation that involves a fairly united GQP.
Here, for purposes of starting a discussion, are what I would consider national priorities for Democrats. I think, basically, we need to look at the next 2 cycles together. States, or almost all states, need to put their first priority in taking care of their own business. The national priorities, however, are:
Level 1: Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Arizona. All of those were Trump ’16, Biden ’20 states, and in all but one of them, Biden’s margin was less than 1%.
All these are equally vital. If one state ls more equal, though, it is Georgia. We need Warnock and Abrams. (Ossoff is in until 2026.) One activity which is crucial and where outside funding would lead to little bad publicity is in legal challenges to vote-suppression legislation.
The Democratic lead in 2016 and 2020 and the swing for each state are, (where the lead is negative, Trump actually led.)
AZ [ -3.6%, 0.3%, 3.9%]
GA [ -5.2%, 0.2%, 5.4%]
PA [ -0.7%, 1.2%, 1.9%]
WI [ -0.7%, 0.7%, 1.4%]
Each of those states will have particular needs, but all of them will have needs in VR, party building, and bench building –- including locally-selected legislative seats to flip.
Every Senate seat which looks close, and a reasonable number of House seats should also be of national concern. Call that the second Priority.
The third priority splits neatly in half.
3A MI [ -0.3%, 2.8%, 3.1%] and NV [ 2.4%, 2.4% 0%] are Biden victories which are better than Pennsylvania, but not all that good, and
3B NC [ -3.6%, -1.4%, 2.2%] and FL [ -1.2%, -3.3%. -2.1%] are Trump victories that Obama had carried at least once and look like possible pick-ups.
The fourth priority, TX [ -9.0%, -5.6%, 3.4% ] looks like a far stretch right now. A purple Texas would, however, mark a national shift. Let’s keep it in our minds for the possible future.
